Yesterday I was talking to a friend about Trump and this election. Contrary to popular belief, I don’t get emotional about Trump. I want Trump to destroy this our corrupt political system, and believe he is the best man to do it. But I’m aware of my limitations.
Yet those who hate Trump get angry at me and want me to defend something Trump has done, because Trump poses an existential threat to the world. Why are people who hate Trump so confident in their hate?
Do you have any cognitive limitations? Let’s test them by running the famous, “If this is true, then this also must be true” Volokhian logic suite.
If you’re certain – so certain that you get ANGRY at people who disagree – you know who will be the best president, then this must also be true:
You have a fundamental understanding of macroeconomics above and beyond the norm. You predicted the housing crisis of 2008 and subsequent market crash. You shorted the market and are a billionaire.
Because you understand economic policy better than everyone else, you outperform the stock market every year. You always buy low and always sell high.
Your knowledge of geopolitical affairs astounds. You knew the War in Iraq would create ISIS because Saddam Hussein (a secular dictator) had kept the Muslim terrorists in check. You believed that the risks associated with ISIS were worth it because Hussein was just a really bad guy who had to be taken out.
Your deep understanding of optimal immigration policies led you conclude that a few terrorist attacks in Paris and Brussels and a few rapes in Cologne are, from a risk-benefit analysis, better than not allowing in migrants from the Middle East. You were willing to accept some rape and murder for the “greater good” of open borders.
Because you’ve studied climate change, you’re able to predict fluctuations in the worlds temperature before it happens. You have a model that can tell me what the temperature will be next year, and five years later. Your climate change model has never been wrong.
On a personal level, you’ve never made a business mistake. You’ve never had a friend betray you because your deep insight into the world prevents such human errors. No woman has ever cheated on you, because you’d never fall for a woman’s lies.
You have a verifiable track record of predictions. We can turn to your writing, whether that be articles in prestigious publications or Facebook posts, demonstrating all of the above.
Is all of that true? If so, prove it. I’ll be happy to read your book and promote your work. I’ll even pay you for life advice. How does $100,000 an hour sound. (Yes, if you have the above track record, I’ll gladly pay you that rate. If you want a million per hour, that’s fine, too.)
We don’t understand policy. We’re great at explaining what happens after it happens, but when it comes to predictions, we’re terrible.
As people we need certainty. We have to convince ourselves that we are right and everyone else is wrong. This is pure ego and pure delusion.
If you’re lucky, you have about 1% control over your decisions. The rest is random happenstance outside of our control or understanding.
But that 1% does matter. A pilot who changes his course by 1% could find himself crashing into the ocean or safely landing on a runway.
Focus on that 1% you can change, which is why I wrote a book on how to do that.